The Lean manufacturing, PPT Plus,
"Back-to-Basics" e-Training Package 
Lean Manufacturing Solutions

Increase the effectiveness of your
Lean Manufacturing Training Program
Lean Manufacturing Simulation Game 

You Will Also Need Help

You can't get results like this alone. You will need input from your Sales and Marketing staff. Don't forget that no one knows the mind of the customer better than those who are the closest, namely, Sales and Marketing. At the same time, never forget, however, that their primary function is to sell product, and they're typically going to be much better at that than forecasting. Please remember to make all documents as straightforward and user-friendly as pos­sible. All the reports in the world aren't going to help if both of you don't understand them.

Do not waste your time explaining all the technical and mathematical contortions that you and your system are capable of doing. It just isn't important, and you will run the risk of alienating the very people who's help you must have. A thorough explanation of Double Exponential Smoothing or the Least Squares method will likely be a turn-off to any "number-phobics," trust me.

Know your players. Are they sandbaggers who turn in tiny forecasts so they'll look like heroes when they beat their numbers? Are they over-optimistic? Who are the straight-shooters? If you haven't been around long enough to know, ask someone who has. If you haven't found a reputable source, try your Accounting or Finance department. Per­formance to Budget for the last few years can be a telling tale, but be sure to find out if there were any extenuating circumstances which could have contributed to anyone missing their Budget.

This may also require you to educate the Sales and Market­ing folks on the benefits of an accurate forecast. The traditional explanations of increased service level, de­creased obsolescence and costs, and plant capacity consid­erations will do it much of the time. If it doesn't, you may need to start pointing out "real world" examples. Wait until the service level dips in a period where demand is well above forecast. Point out that enough stock was built to cover the forecast, plus a Safety Stock, but that when demand comes in at double the plan (use really obvious examples), stock outs and customer service problems will occur. After this kind of educational process takes place a few times, I've found that even the most jaded individuals will take more of an interest.

But the most critical aspect is trust. You must truly foster an attitude of team work and shared responsibility, and you must do your part to build an excellent relationship. You alone are responsible for your reputation. You must earn the trust required to become privy to confidential informa­tion, which you must never, under any circumstances, reveal. When you've earned your stripes, you may even start getting little tips about things that are in the work, or that might be out on the horizon. You can keep this information tucked away in the back of your head, and keep it in mind as you work on other projects or forecasts. When you start getting the "tips," your accuracy can really begin to soar. But you will never get that kind of information, help, and cooperation by intimidation

To be Continued